Saturday, December 23, 2006

Mortgage insurance will be tax deductible for some home buyers (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)


Mortgage insurance will be tax deductible for some home buyers (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)
Mortgage insurance will be tax-deductible in 2007. For some homeowners, the new law means it will cheaper to get mortgage insurance instead of getting piggyback loans.


Essentially this means that instead of getting a piggyback loan (which was tax deductible) you can now deduct the cost of PMI on your taxes. Given that PMI is typically cheaper than the interest rate on the piggy back loan this makes this a viable option again. Please note this is a federal change so everyone benefits.

Saturday, December 16, 2006

Millenium Holding Group Announces Agreement to Develop Real Estate in Barstow, California (Market Wire via Yahoo! Finance)


Millenium Holding Group Announces Agreement to Develop Real Estate in Barstow, California (Market Wire via Yahoo! Finance)
Millenium Holding Group, Inc. today announced that the Company through its wholly owned real estate subsidiary FYNRE entered into an agreement with MGM Development LLC to develop a 7.75 acre property in Barstow, California. Barstow, California is one of the fastest growing communities in that part of the country. The development, called Sun Ridge I, consists of 44 lots which will have modular ...

Moving inland to less desirable areas has always been California's response to continued growth. Barstow is affordable. Remember my post on Bakersfield being the new hot spot?

Thursday, December 07, 2006

Ownit - California sub prime lender closes 800 laid off

Ownit Mortgage Solutions, a California company that described itself as one of the top 15 lenders to homeowners with weak or no credit histories, has shut down, citing "the current unfavorable conditions of the mortgage industry."

Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER) and private equity firm CIVC Partners hold stakes in Ownit, which built its book of new loans to $8.3 billion in 2005 from $1.1 billion in 2003, in part by introducing products like 45-year mortgages, according to its Web site. Ownit's demise comes as subprime mortgage lenders are being squeezed by higher funding costs, weakening loan demand and rising delinquencies.
"Effective Dec. 5, Ownit closed its doors, and we are no longer able to fund or process your loans," the company said on a recorded telephone message. "We apologize for any inconvenience."

Ownit ran out of cash needed to meet its obligations to repurchase loans from investment banks and others who bought them in the secondary market, people in the industry said. The banks, which convert the loan payments into mortgage-backed securities for sale to investors, can force the original lenders to repurchase loans if the mortgage borrowers default.

Bruce Dickinson, Ownit's chief operating officer, said he couldn't immediately comment pending discussions with lawyers.

In a letter to mortgage bankers and other business associates emailed Dec. 5, Ownit said, "For the past three years, we have pursued a mission to influence the mortgage industry toward increased affordability options for a changing market of home buyers. Change takes time, and we are saddened that the current unfavorable conditions of the mortgage industry did not afford us sufficient time to see our mission through."

Worsening conditions have pushed many owners of subprime mortgage firms to try to sell the businesses. Morgan Stanley (MS) bought Saxon Capital Inc. for $706 million earlier this month and Merrill plans to complete its $1.3 billion purchase of First Franklin Financial Corp., a large subprime lender that is owned by Cleveland-based National City Corp. (NCC) in the next few weeks.

National City bought First Franklin, which together with affiliates has $29 billion of mortgage loans, from its founder Bill Dallas, who went on to become chief executive of Ownit. Dallas didn't return a call for comment.
Merrill is believed to own about 20% of Ownit. A Merrill Lynch spokeswoman declined to comment. CIVC Partners, a Chicago-based private equity firm, also has a stake in Ownit and was an investor in First Franklin before Dallas sold it to National City. CIVC's Dan Helly, who oversees the Ownit investment, didn't return a call for comment.

The end came quickly for Ownit. "We were all working yesterday, assuming we were fine," Dave Hanthorn, a New Jersey-based employee who sells the firm's loans to mortgage brokers, said Wednesday evening. "At 5:15 last night we got the call that we were ceasing operations." He said the company gave no explanation for its funding problems.

Ownit laid off all its staff, according to a headhunter, who received an email that was reviewed by Dow Jones from a friend who worked at the firm. A voicemail message at the number of LesLee Delaney, a representative of Ownit in California, said the company will help mortgage brokers and other wholesale customers try to get their loans transferred to other lenders.

Wednesday, December 06, 2006

LoanWeb Honored by Los Angeles Business Journal

LoanWeb Honored by Los Angeles Business Journal (PR Web)


Online mortgage marketing company recognized in top 100 fastest-growing.

Despite the LA Business Journal mostly being a vanity publication, it's refreshing to see a company like Loanweb continuing to thrive in today's tough market. Loanweb was one of the first brokers to really embrace the internet as a lead generation tool. They are based in Calabasas and have been doing online loan applications since 1996.

Sunday, November 26, 2006

PUBC Announces New Client Contract With Castleview Home Loans

PUBC Announces New Client Contract With Castleview Home Loans (SYS-CON Media)


Public Company Management Corporation (OTCBB: PUBC) announced that it has signed a contract with Castleview Home Loans, a 16-year-old mortgage banker and originator of first and second mortgages in California, Colorado, Idaho, Indiana, Louisiana, and Oregon.Under the contract, PUBC, through its subsidiaries GoPublicToday.com, Inc.,will provide management consulting services and advice to ., will provide management consulting services and advice to Castleview concerning various corporate and securities matters including Castleview's efforts to become a fully reporting public company.

This doesn't have a huge amount to do with the California market. Castle View is only a player in the second mortgage market in California. On the other hand a public offering is a big step for a company like Castle View. They don't have a huge presence in the sub prime market yet I question the timing of the announcement. Could they be going to the public markets in order to get the founders liquidity or do they need financing for other reasons.

Monday, November 20, 2006

Accelerating Mortgage Payments

Accelerating your mortgage payment is the quickest way to pay off your home faster. Most people have had the opposite approach to their homes, using them like an ATM. Flooding the market with cheap credit has driven up the price of homes which then has encouraged the same wealth effect that people saw with their stock portfolios with their homes. Needless to say the tables have turned and people begun to look to pay off their debt faster.

Accelerating your mortgage payment is easy. First pay off any seconds or home equity lines of credit first. The interest there is far higher. Then simply include additional payments toward principal. Simply including one additional payment a year will shave 5 years off a 30 year mortage.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

James P. Giraldin Re-Elected to the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco Board of Directors

James P. Giraldin Re-Elected to the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco Board of Directors (Business Wire via Yahoo! Finance)



SANTA MONICA, Calif.----James P. Giraldin, President, Chief Operating Officer and board member of First Federal Bank of California, the wholly-owned subsidiary of FirstFed Financial Corp. and the third largest Los Angeles-based financial institution, has been re-elected to a three-year term beginning January 1, 2007 on the board of directors of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco.

Which is good to hear. James is a good guy and his experience and work at FirstFed should help on the Board of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco. They face a number of challenges there including a number of foreclosures in the East Bay.

Guide to Federal Grants and Government Assistance to Small Business

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Thursday, October 26, 2006

Ok loose credit standards personified.

This self aggrandizing 24 year old UNEMPLOYED web designer managed to buy 6 homes in less than two years using liars loans. The fact that he lied on his loans on his loans isn't surprising. I think it's the fact that he thinks getting enough media attention will bail him out. It will have the opposite effect especially since he has already admitted to mortgage fraud multiple times on his blog. Said thing is we predicted something like this would come out during the current run up of real estate in California over a year ago on this blog.

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Flip that House showing signs of market corrections

My wife Roxane is HGTV addict. She regularly watches the nearly every home improvement show on almost every channel. One she has been watching is "Flip that House" since she was in charge of the improvements we put into our California home before selling. We had quite a bit of work done on the house which included air conditioning, redoing the hardword floors, redoing the kitchen with granite and a new period accurate tile back splash. We also repainted the entire house.

On trend we have both noticed is the houses on "Flip that House" are no longer actually selling. Previously on the show they would show the actual profit from flipping the house. Now they just show the "projected profit." There's a problem with this - these shows take a year or so to produce - If the house sold then it's a simple matter of adding the graphic at the end of the show showing the actual profit. They have stopped doing that and only show what the "projected profit" at the end work on the house. They haven't included the carrying cost on the house (that no interest mortgage) nor do they include realtor's fees!

This struck me as odd as I watched a California couple attempted to flip a home in Thousand Oaks. They bought the house for 1.1 million, put $50,000 into and then attemped to put it on the market for 1.25 million. This couple had previously been flipping condos and so were used to just literally throwing on new paint and window treatment and then selling the condo. The problem of course was their expectations and the buyers expectations were completely at odds. For example in re-doing the kitchen they left the original plain white appliances. Someone buying a home for 1.25 million is going to want stainless steel and Traulsen fridges. On the island they went for granite tile instead of a solid custom cut piece of granite! When the agent asked why, they mentioned it would have been too much work! Yes but buyers in this market expect it

They didn't put in hardwood floors and instead put new plantation blinds throughout the house. Here's a hint guys - a million dollar home buyer is not gonna be impressed with the $800 you spent on blinds at Pier One.

The other problem of course is that they bought at the height of the California market were trying to flip it without understanding the market they were selling to. A million + home buyer has certain set of expectations. Even our home we put custom granite and tile with redone hardword floors. For 1.25 million - I expect hardwood floors throughout the home and a better kitchen.

Monday, September 25, 2006

Mortgage Rates Up For First Time In Seven Weeks

Mortgage Rates Up For First Time In Seven Weeks



Mortgage rates reversed a six week downward trend, increasing slightly during the week ended September 7 according to the Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey released by Freddie Mac.



Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist said "We expect that mortgage rates will continue to fluctuate as new economic data are released, but hold steady in the meantime".


Small increases in marginal rates aren't having the effects that they would normally on home sales because affordability concerns seem to still trump them. Buyers are keenly aware that today's distressed seller is going to be even more distressed tomorrow, thus pushing prices and demand even further.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Mortgage Rates Continue Up and Down Pattern

Mortgage Rates Continue Up and Down Pattern

And this week, they are down.

Mortgage rates, that is. The one week up, two weeks down, two weeks up pattern continues as the markets try to outguess where the Federal Reserve is going with rates, fewer people apply for mortgages, and housing sales in some parts of the country also slide.



This is a holding pattern design to signal the markets not to panic. Aggressive moves in either direction would signal panic. Begin cutting rates and the market would perceive that the you are trying to jumpstart the housing sector again. Raising rates would also be equally problematic. So expect the continued pattern of up/down.

Peer-To-Peer Lending: A Prototype For The Future Of Mortgage Lending

Peer-To-Peer Lending: A Prototype For The Future Of Mortgage Lending

Newsweek Magazine's Tip Sheet section last week featured two Web sites that have nothing to do with real estate or mortgage financing but may illustrate the future of the mortgage lending game.



It is not such a stretch to see a prospective homebuyer logging on to (example) Helpmebuy.com or some such with a request for the $250,000 he figures he needs to buy a home and the rate he is willing to pay and be pre-approved by a single lender or 1,000 of them in a matter of hours. This would truly be "lenders bidding for your business".



Per to per lending is more viable when dealing with business proposition. For example getting micro loans for a new startup. I have considered using Prosper.com for various projects. Using them to buy a loan just isn't viable I think since it's apparent raising $20,000-$30,000 this way simply isn't viable for most people. Most stories tend to be hard luck cases or attractive females.

Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Housing Bubble Watch: Building Stats Slip As Does Builder Confidence


Housing Bubble Watch: Building Stats Slip As Does Builder Confidence

The two monthly reports that measure the health of the home construction industry were released this week. The U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development issued its report on housing starts in June and the National Association of Home Builders in conjunction with Wells Fargo published their monthly Housing Market Index (HMI) for July. Taken together the two reports are...

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Monday, June 19, 2006

ARMS - Driving up foreclosures!

This is a pretty good article which comes the AP via Yahoo. The article is surprisingly good and highlights what loose credit standards combined with ARMS leads to. All the examples cited in the article are on the margins, ie lower value homes, sub prime loans and in markets not nearly as hot as California. Overall according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, foreclosures fell in all categories except sub prime loans. My gut tells me that the numbers will be way up for sub prime loans as these are people who cannot get credit elsewhere and very often cannot re-finance into a fixed loan because of poor credit.

""ARMs are a ticking time bomb," said Brad Geisen, president and chief executive of property tracker Foreclosure.com. "Through 2006 and 2007, I'm pretty sure we'll see a high volume of foreclosures."

Last year, foreclosures hit a historical low nationwide at about 50,000. But that number has more than doubled since then, according to Foreclosure.com.


Let's keep in mind something. The number has doubled it's only JUNE! That means we are on pace to having four times the number of foreclosures in 2006 than we did in 2005. That's a huge spike and pretty frightening.

This won't have as much of an effect on California just yet,

"Gaines pointed out that although California's default notices are rising by the thousands, actual foreclosure sales remain in the hundreds. Because of California's still-active housing market, homeowners there can sell their properties before going into foreclosure.

On the flip side, in less active markets like Texas and Georgia, homeowners can't find a buyer in time and are forced into foreclosure."


A bit of statistics manipulation and things don't seem as bad as things really are in the Golden State

California, where the median home price reached $468,000 in April, leads the nation in the percentage of homes purchased with adjustable rate mortgages. Nationwide, ARMs account for 24 percent of all home loans.

"In our zeal to make mortgage lending more available to a greater number of people, it's normal to expect the foreclosure rate to go up," Gaines said.

The problem with this number is that it takes all mortgages and lumps together. So my father in law who purchased his home in 1977 for $77,000 (now worth well over $750,00 0) is lumped in. This hides and understates the real problems that ARMs are going to be in California. As I covered in a recent post 61% of new mortgages in 2005 are interest only! So people buying at the very top of the market with financial instruments set to reset in 2007 and 2008. 2008 is going to be a very tough year for anyone who bought with an ARM.

Thursday, June 15, 2006

Report Attempts To Soothe Housing Bubble Fears

Report Attempts To Soothe Housing Bubble Fears

Freddie Mac's monthly Economic Outlook for June was released last week. In what has become a mantra, the corporations Office of the Chief Economist, quoting Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke's recent remarks, is predicting an "orderly and moderate cooling of the housing sector."



You say tomato, I say tomatoe! One man's "orderly and moderate cooling" is another's catastophic drop in price! When you have 6-7 months of price declines is that an orderly cooling? For those owners who bought at the top of the market with no money done, their entire house of cards comes tumbling down. As home values continue to decline, depending on your situation and how stretched you are it certainly might become catastrophic.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006

Two New Reports Show Housing Exuberance Is Waning


Two New Reports Show Housing Exuberance Is Waning

Further evidence that the real estate boom is moderating came from the National Association of Realtors last week.

Quarterly figures on existing home sales which include single family houses and condominium units trended downward for the second straight quarter during the first three months of 2006.



This downward trend is natural given the rise in prices and the expectations of customer's minds that the market is cooling. If you can get a better deal by waiting a few months then you will, especially on a purchase as large as a house. Rates are already lower now then they were last year at this time so it's not the prime mortgage rates.

Thursday, June 01, 2006

Mortgage Rates Drop

USA Today has a great article mentioning the recent drop in mortgage applications. The old standard 30 year fixed is currently 6.66%. Remarkably despite all the media coverage of the real danger of ARMs,

The ARM share of activity edged up to 30.7% of total applications last week from 30.5% the previous week. It was the highest ARM share since late January


People seem to be using them - largely because the interest rates still trail 30 fixed but by less than a percentage point. Seems to me the market certainly in California is still frothy.

Wednesday, May 24, 2006

May Economic Outlook Report Lowers Expectations

May Economic Outlook Report Lowers Expectations

Last month we ended our report on Freddie Mac's April Economic Outlook with the statement that "Freddie Mac's April Economic Outlook deviates only slightly from predictions in earlier months; the housing market is slowing but certainly not screeching to a halt."

May's report which was issued this week paints a slightly less optimistic picture.

Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Mortgage Rates Continue Uptick While Refinancing At Two Year Low


Mortgage Rates Continue Uptick While Refinancing At Two Year Low

Mortgage rates barely moved during the past week according to Freddie Mac reporting for the period ending May 4 and the Mortgage Bankers Association for the week ending May 5. While the trend continued, as it has for some time, to be up for most products the one-year adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) actually declined according to both organizations.

Applications to refinance as a percent of overall mortgage activity decreased to ...

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Friday, May 12, 2006

Mortgage Rates, Applications, Cash Out Refinancing All Up

Mortgage Rates, Applications, Cash Out Refinancing All Up

Fixed mortgage rates increased for the fifth straight week according to Freddie Mac's Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ended April 27 and adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) logged the sixth consecutive week of increases.

In a separate report Freddie Mac announced that cash-out financing of its owned loans recently hit the highest level since the third quarter of 1990.

Freddie Mac estimated that $170 billion in home equity will be converted to cash through refinancing during 2006.

Monday, May 08, 2006

Why Get Renters Insurance? We will Tell You.


Why Get Renters Insurance? We will Tell You.

The news last month was full of awful pictures of the tornado damage that occurred throughout Missouri and Illinois. Along with the continuing debacle in Louisiana and Mississippi, the topic of insurance is once again on our minds.



Renter's insurance is remarkably cheap and quite frankly disaster can strike a renter as easily as it can strike a home owner. The fact that most renters don't have renters shouldn't be that surprising, most renters tend to be young and quite frankly not responsible. But a few bucks a month can save that DVD collection if something should happen to it.

Tuesday, April 18, 2006

Housing Bubble vs. Housing Market Slowdown


Housing Bubble vs. Housing Market Slowdown

The central issue addressed by the April 2006 Economic Outlook issued by Freddie Mac on Monday is the conflict created between the strength of the economy and the increasing lack of housing affordability.

The report goes on to tie this lack of affordability to the growth in the popularity of adjustable rates mortgages and especially to nontraditional ARM products such as negative amortization and interest only loans. Use of these types of loans is often the only way families can qualify for a mortgage in these high cost communities. People buying homes with negative amortization loans are purely speculating in the market and they are speculating with someone else's money. This has driven the market onward and upward and pushed housing out of reach for many people in the market.

Wednesday, April 12, 2006

Websites For The Home With No Homeowners Manual

Seems strange that a vacuum, a refrigerator, bicycle, even a 4 inch house plant from Home Depot, comes with a manual or at least a set of instructions (place in indirect light, water only when soil is completely dry) but a homeowner is pretty much on his own when trying to operate, maintain, and protect his largest and probably most complicated investment.

As with so many things today, the Internet comes to the rescue. We found dozens of websites from a simple search for "home maintenance". Several of those we reviewed provided excellent information that can fill in for that missing home owner's manual. Each of the three listed below has its place and we recommend checking them out and then book marking them for future reference.

Wednesday, April 05, 2006

Housing Bubble Conflicting Data Released

Housing Bubble Conflicting Data Released

The housing market threw the world another curve on Thursday. After five straight months of declining sales of existing homes, a sixth dreary month was pretty generally expected. Instead the National Association of Realtors announced that February sales of previously-owned homes had jumped 5.2 percent from similar sales in January. This was the largest monthly increase in two years.

Wow, so much for the housing bubble bursting. All of the "experts" are wrong. The national love affair with real estate continues. NAR itself said that the encouraging report was a sign that the market was "stabilizing" and should "level out" in the months ahead.



Of course this jump in sales was preceded by six months of price declines. So eventually the market had to readjust remember NAR has a vested interest in keeping prices high and keeping people buying

Credit Bureaus Roll Out VantageScore Credit Scoring System


Credit Bureaus Roll Out VantageScore Credit Scoring System

...So, now that we are comfortable with what constitutes a score, what our own scores are, and how that indicates that we stack up, it is all going to change.

On March 14 the three bureaus announced that they have collaborated on a new credit scoring system "to benefit consumers and credit grantors." The new system named...

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Thursday, March 30, 2006

Second Home Sales Increase Their Share Of Real Estate Market

Second Home Sales Increase Their Share Of Real Estate Market

The National Association of Realtors recently released an interesting report about the sale of second homes in the United States. While the survey is a little outdated, the data covers sales over five years to the end of 2004, it still provides a perspective as to who, where, and how non-primary residences are being purchased.

For example, during the years from 2001 to 2004, second home sales (which include both recreational/vacation property and investment property) more than doubled

This really isn't surprising, many home owners in the markets experiencing the most growth were taking equity from their rapidly appreciating California home and where investing it other markets. As these other markets cooled, the second home buyers were the first to leave.
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Monday, March 27, 2006

Housing Bubble Conflicting Data Released

Housing Bubble Conflicting Data Released

The housing market threw the world another curve on Thursday. After five straight months of declining sales of existing homes, a sixth dreary month was pretty generally expected. Instead the National Association of Realtors announced that February sales of previously-owned homes had jumped 5.2 percent from similar sales in January. This was the largest monthly increase in two years.

NAR itself said that the encouraging report was a sign that the market was "stabilizing" and should "level out" in the months ahead.


While that's NAR's position as head cheerleader, it's apparent the the 5 months of declining prices and lower interest rates had an impact on declining sales and finally some people bought.

Read the Report at Mortgage News Daily

Wednesday, March 22, 2006

Fannie Mae Saga Continues As Rudman Report Is

Fannie Mae Saga Continues As Rudman Report Is Issued
The long awaited independent accounting report on Fannie Mae was released late last month, and while it sort of absolves Franklin Raines, former Chairman and CEO of the mega-mortgage company who, along with Timothy Howard the CFO lost his job at the height of the scandal, it comes down pretty hard on Howard. Interestingly, we did not find one mention of the accounting firm of KPMG which was also fired from its position of independent auditor, in the report's Executive Summary.

Monday, March 20, 2006

Mortgage Rates Hit Three Year Highs After months


Mortgage Rates Hit Three Year Highs
After months of apparent indecisiveness, mortgages rates seem to have decided on a direction and are heading toward it. Unfortunately that direction is up! Both of the mortgage market surveys we track reported rates at their highest levels since mid-2002 and in one case since 2001.

Rate increases seem natural given the market and where it's headed.

Friday, March 10, 2006

Zillow May Not Be Ready For Prime Time

Zillow May Not Be Ready For Prime Time
We have had a lot of feedback from readers about our first article about the Zillow.com website which was published here during the week of February 12. Nearly all of the writers were extremely negative about Zillow. For example: "This website is highly inaccurate. The values of the homes are not even close. A house valued at 380K will come back on Zillow as 212K. They have a serious database problem." "It's a very BASIC GUESS. It cannot 'see' the house (if the house is) damaged by a storm or fire or anything else. It cannot 'see' (if) the property is waterfront or has a spectacular view - or not - and compares (it) to only what's close in proximity - or the property that is gutted on the inside. Hey, it is free so everyone can use it at their own risk. VERY misleading in many areas and only decent for 'cookie cutter' neighborhoods in disclosure states. You can trust it about as much as a pie in the sky."

Thursday, March 02, 2006

Environmental And Asthetical Alternatives Exist To Minimize Hardscape

Environmental And Asthetical Alternatives Exist To Minimize Hardscape
Reducing the impervious materials used to accommodate vehicles and recycling the water that washes off of our roofs can pay big dividends to the environment and maybe even the household budget.

Additionally these systems can be used without running up your water bill to water your outside plants.

Tuesday, February 21, 2006

NAR Releases Monthly and Annual 2005 Existing Home

NAR Releases Monthly and Annual 2005 Existing Home Sale Numbers
Home sales are obviously beginning to slow, but records were still set during 2005 in both volume and value. Well it's important to remember that real estate bubbles, unlike stock bubbles have many things propping up prices. Real estate bubble almost always deflate rather than crash.

Wednesday, February 08, 2006

Expedia Founder tries his hand at real estate

"A decade ago, Richard Barton launched Expedia.com and helped transform the travel industry by handing consumers the same tools to book reservations that travel agents had long controlled.

Now, Barton is applying the same approach to real estate — and is banking on equally dramatic results."

Barton is hoping to disintermediate the real estate agents who for too long have had a monopoly over listings and commissions. That's free market enterprise in action. Barton has deep enough pockets that he can probably force NAR to compete.

Monday, January 30, 2006

Appraisal Fraud, Mortgage Brokers and the heating of the California Real Estate Market

A lot of posts have written about the sometimes difficult relationship between appraisers and mortgage brokers. One thing has become clear though, appraisal fraud and appraisal exaggeration have played a part in the run up of housing prices well ahead of incomes in the California real estate market.

I realize that little supposition needs more support so let's take a look at the
  • role that the appraiser plays in a real estate transaction. Traditionally the appraiser's role is to secure the bank's interest in the transaction. The bank is the largest owner in any real estate transaction. Unless you are buying your home with cash, you need to get the money from somewhere.

    Let's think back to how Ward Cleaver probably bought his house. It's a little different. Ward probably got a loan from a local bank guaranteeed by the VA. Little known fact about Ward - he served in WW2 as a SeeBee in the Pacific. His local banker probably knew his neighborhood, understood the value of the home and additionally was going to was likely to carry the paper throughout the life of the loan.

    In today's market your loan is likely going to be done by mortgage broker. This broker has an interest in getting the deal done since that's the only way he gets paid. The actual lender on the property is probably going to re-package and sell the loan within a few months of the house closing.

    So how can appraisal fraud play a part in a real estate bubble? The mortgage broker begins to assert pressure to "hit a number" with the appraisal. Don't think it doesn't happen?

    According to Appraiser Petition - it certainly does


    The concern of this petition has to do with our "independent judgment" in performing real estate appraisals. We, the undersigned, represent a large number of licensed and certified real estate appraisers in the United States, who seek your assistance in solving a problem facing us on a daily basis. Lenders (meaning any and all of the following: banks, savings and loans, mortgage brokers, credit unions and loan officers in general; not to mention real estate agents) have individuals within their ranks, who, as a normal course of business, apply pressure on appraisers to hit or exceed a predetermined value.

    This pressure comes in many forms and includes the following:

    • the withholding of business if we refuse to inflate values,
    • the withholding of business if we refuse to guarantee a predetermined value,
    • the withholding of business if we refuse to ignore deficiencies in the property,
    • refusing to pay for an appraisal that does not give them what they want,
    • black listing honest appraisers in order to use "rubber stamp" appraisers, etc.



    This combined with the free money and loose underwriting standards, means that that housing prices have grown faster than incomes and far faster than they should have. But this isn't a bubble blog.
  • Friday, January 27, 2006

    Ameriquest Settlement and Corporate Moral Behaviour

    Sorry for the delay in posting a new piece of commentary.I have been swamped.
    On the recent events that has stuck in my mind was the recent settlement by Ameriquest for a wide number of mortgage fraud offenses. (Changing rates, adding points and in general screwing the sub-prime market)

    Here's some observations from the The Checkout - a consumer blog at the Washington Post


    The settlement ends a two-year investigation by all 50 state attorneys general, banking regulators and local prosecutors into allegations that Ameriquest deceived consumers to sell mortgages, using high-presure sales tactics to meet employee sales quotas. In addition to paying $295 million in consumer redress and $30 million in legal fees, the company has agreed to change some of its business practices and accept outside monitors who will observe the company...

    Ameriquest did not admit any wrongdoing in agreeing to the settlement; but issued a statement saying "we regret those occasions when our associates have not met this ideal to our customers' expectations... This agreement is good for consumers and fair to the company. It provides a framework for new lending policies that improve and enhance our ability to serve our customers and are a model for the industry."



    One of things that immediately comes to mind is that any time you are writing a $325,000,000 check, you will want to do everything possible to avoid that. Despite the silly protests of "no wrongdoing" it's clear that Ameriquest knew they would lose at trial. Why? Because the last time I looked even a 1/3 of that money (roughly 100 million) would be quite a bit of legal defense. You settle now to prevent an even more devestating judgement at trial (undoubtedly in the billions of dollars). Why do corporations that have inflicted damage on hundreds of thousands of people insist when settling, "they admit no wrong doing?"

    First of it's a purely legalistic defense so their lawyers think they can mitigate damage at trial. At every one of the civil trials for Ameriquest (from people who Ameriquest robbed from), they can mention that they admitted no wrongdoing in the hopes it will mitigate the cupability of the company. Why do corporations often do this?

    Let's remember one of the roles the corporation serves for the individual who are employees. The corporation serves to lessen the moral responsibility for each employee. Each employee is then able to commit acts that they would never think of doing as a private person. This transfer of moral authority to a corporation is fairly obvious to anyone that thinks about it and is supported by the Milgram experiment which show how people can defer to authority even when it conflicts with their conscience. The transfer of moral responsibility from employee to the the corporation is yet another clear example.

    Employees of Ameriquest lied, stole and robbed people of thousands of dollars - an action which they would not take in the context of say robbing a bank but were able to easily do in the context of sub prime loan.

    I have seen people argue somewhat childishly "that corporations are composed of people." Yes they are comprised of people but their moral behaviour in groups is entirely different than their individual behaviour.

    Wednesday, January 18, 2006

    Rate Update

    Average mortgage rates for single-family homes in the 10 largest metropolitan areas as of Jan. 18 as compiled by bankrate.com. The rates are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages for 80 percent of the value of the house. A point is a one-time fee equaling one percent of mortgage.
    Jan. 18 Prev. Wk
    percent+points
    Boston 6.14 + 0.11 6.23 + 0.05
    Chicago 6.23 + 0.04 6.31 + 0.10
    Dallas 6.08 + 0.56 6.25 + 0.42
    Detroit 6.23 + 0.00 6.29 + 0.00
    Houston 6.01 + 0.65 6.12 + 0.69
    Los Angeles 6.16 + 0.48 6.27 + 0.46
    New York 6.13 + 0.18 6.19 + 0.16
    Philadelphia 6.00 + 0.38 6.13 + 0.26
    San Francisco 6.19 + 0.20 6.30 + 0.20
    DC Metro 6.01 + 0.55 6.07 + 0.54
    National Avg 6.12 + 0.31 6.22 + 0.29

    Saturday, January 14, 2006

    Freddie Macs ARM Survey Notes Increased Lender Discounts

    Freddie Macs ARM Survey Notes Increased Lender Discounts
    While the flattening of the yield curve has not noticeably hurt the popularity of ARMS, it is largely lender discounts that have kept the products in the game. Not entirely surprising since lenders have large incentives to keep them in the game. Given the way that revenues are booked by lenders, they are heavily incentivized to push ARMS

    Thursday, January 12, 2006

    Great Little Real Estate Search Engine Mashup

    Trulia isn't the name of one of Cinderella's evil stepsisters, it's a total cool real estate search engine that currently covers California. It's best described as a mashup because it indexes real estate, links them up with Google maps and then makes the WHOLE thing available via RSS. You can search, set up parameters such bedrooms, price, square footage and type of property. Oh it has pictures too. Great resource.
    Here's an example Ramona CA.


    Technorati Tags



    Sunday, January 08, 2006

    Bankrate Update

    Here’s the latest numbers on interest rates for five common consumer products for the week of January 1st - January 7th. This national survey was performed by Bankrate.com on Wednesday, January 4th.

    * Mortgages - 6.27% (30 Year Fixed)
    * Home Equity Lines - 7.32%
    * Auto Loans - 7.90% (48 Month - New Car)
    * CD - 3.28% (One Year Yield)
    * Credit Card - 12.94% (Standard Fixed)

    Tuesday, January 03, 2006

    A Bad Inspection Should Not Be The End


    A Bad Inspection Should Not Be The End Of The World (Cont)
    Do not give up on your dream house just because the inspection report is less than dreamy. Money can fix most problems and your seller may be willing to pay his share.